Is it good to follow Public Betting?
Public Betting is a very popular method of betting among a large numbers of gamblers. It involves betting on a team that is favorite in certain game.
There are many factors for the team to be a favorite, one of the principal is to play as home team.
How can you identify an online favorite team?
Many sportsbooks offer information on sports betting games, this data is shown in percentage amount which results in how many times people have place a bet on a specific team. For example:
Golden State Warriors 77% Total Bets
San Antonio Spurs 23% Total Bets
As shown above, public betting is simply bet on the favorite team based on the amount of bets that a team has according to percentage data from different sportsbooks.
Public Betting should be done very carefully as this kind of betting will bring a danger to the bettor. The main danger to people using the percentages of the sportsbooks is the misinterpretation of the data. It is not advisable to bet on all public percentages.
There are several ways to avoid the danger involved in betting public percentages, a simple strategy is to go against the tide and bet against the favorites. It sounds simple enough but it is not, this strategy works only when it concerns a very important game, such as the Super Bowl or any other playoffs, championship or final games.
Betting against the public has its benefits when taken into consideration that it is only for special occasions. Should not be used all the time because it could cause a catastrophe for the bankroll.
Some statistics from the NFL show how profitable it has been betting against the public in the past seasons:
*54% of NFL teams that had a support of 75% by the public, lost.
*The visiting teams with big underdogs lines maintained their spread by 55% of the time when the favorite home team they faced was 70% + with public support.
It will not be profitable all the time to bet against the public, but it is one of the most feasible methods to beat a sportsbook on the long term.
What should be taken into account when using the public betting percentages?
Most sportsbooks know when one of its users only likes to bet favorites. When the sportsbook realizes that the user is a square bettor (another name to call public betting) they tend to limit their betting amount at any time.
One thing that must be done to prevent the sportsbook limit the user’s account is alternate the betting methods. Use a combination of “against the public” and also bet on favorites, it will help to avoid an account limitation.
We must make a constant monitoring of the betting lines that we like. If we look at a specific sports game and we are willing to make a bet on that game we must keep a watch on the betting line and be prepare if there is any change that benefits our side.
Moneyline and winning percentage.
Best bets with the favorite or the public is the moneyline percentage. It is already proven statistically that favorite tend to win 58% of the games. The worst statistics data from favorite is covering the spread as it shows only 50% chances to cover the spread by the favorite. The spread is the worst bet you can take with a favorite.
Finally, it is clear that betting with the public is very beneficial in the long haul if a rigorous control system is taken to prevent the favorites with their inflated bet lines devour our bankroll.